Forensic research on corporate distress signals. Model outputs, ratings changes, and full risk breakdowns.
In late 2022, Carvana's debt-fueled growth faced rising interest rates, resulting in a leverage ratio of 94.1% and a danger score of 44.8. The model flagged a default probability of 38%.
Hertz carried a leverage ratio of 92.3% and near-zero return on assets in FY2019. The model assigned a danger score of 41.6. Hertz filed Chapter 11 in May 2020, twelve months later.
Tupperware failed to file its 10-K on time, carrying a leverage ratio of 96.5% and an interest coverage of negative 0.15. The model flagged a default probability of 42% prior to its restructuring negotiations.